In Russia, where high-profile court cases are informed by politics rather than the rule of law, arrests often deliver messages not justice.
That’s why the arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on April 23 on charges of taking bribes is a bombshell. Such cases against senior officials are a rarity.
Coming on the eve of Vladimir Putin’s inauguration for a fifth presidential term next week, which is expected to be followed by a government reshuffle, Ivanov’s arrest is widely interpreted as an ominous sign for Russia’s longtime Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Although Shoigu has a dozen deputies, Ivanov was among his closest allies. Their ties go back more than a decade, first working together in the Moscow regional government before Ivanov followed his boss into the defense ministry.
Ivanov’s lawyer denies the charges, but he was fired by Shoigu last week, Russia’s TASS news agency reported.
In his latest job overseeing military construction, Ivanov was in charge of some of Russia’s most prestigious projects, including a giant military-themed cathedral and patriotic theme park on the outskirts of Moscow and, more recently, reconstruction work in the ruined city of Mariupol in occupied Ukraine.
His access to astronomic funds earned him the nickname “Shoigu’s wallet.”
Rather than hide his wealth, Ivanov flaunted it. For years, tabloids and independent journalists documented his love for women, opulent real estate, designer clothes and trips to the French Riviera.
But in Russia, leading a lifestyle which is incongruent with a government salary is not unusual, let alone reason for arrest.
A 2022 investigation into Ivanov by the team of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny described how Ivanov on one occasion pulled down the sleeve of Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov to cover up a luxury watch on his wrist — an apparent example of how Putin’s elite shield each other from scrutiny.
It is safe to say something has changed to make Ivanov, a well-connected insider who in normal times would have been considered untouchable, a target.
High-profile target
What exactly happened has been the subject of feverish speculation. Likely, several factors are at play.
After Ivanov appeared in court in a glass cage the morning after his arrest, pundits were quick to point out he was still wearing the military uniform he had worn the day before during a televised work meeting chaired by Shoigu.
The optics were that not just Ivanov, but Russia’s entire defense ministry finds itself under a magnifying glass.
Ilya Shumanov, head of Transparency International Russia, said that since the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine, graft in the defense sector has skyrocketed in line with increased military spending.
“From the point of view of the leadership, this undermines the country’s defense capabilities. Someone had to answer for that,” he said.
The Kremlin has been taking some careful measures. In March, for example, Putin appointed a new deputy defense minister for the material and technical supply of the army, the third to hold the post in the space of a year-and-a-half.
Ivanov’s excesses made him a “convenient scapegoat,” said Shumanov.
It also fits into the Kremlin’s broader campaign to impose a new war-time standard of frugal virtue-signalling on its elite, which has already seen various celebrities ostracized and in some cases prosecuted for public debauchery.
Ivanov “failed to sense the way the wind is blowing,” wrote Vladimir Pastukhov from University College London, by continuing to lead a flashy life “at a time when the entire elite started actively changing into khaki clothing.”
The Prigozhin link
Someone who did sense the wind of change, before he died in a suspicious plane crash, was Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin. He ranted against Russia’s military brass, reserving special venom for Shoigu, accusing him of starving his mercenary forces of ammunition and equipment.
“You can’t just throw people into a meat grinder and then continue eating your creamy soup оf morels, chestnuts, whatever is fashionable these days on Rublyovka,” Prigozhin said in a May 2023 interview, referring to the luxury suburb where much of Russia’s elite own homes.
Prigozhin’s abortive military mutiny was motivated by the demand for Shoigu’s ouster; but the warlord’s failure followed by his death left Shoigu seemingly unscathed — until now.
With the war in Ukraine in its third year, and different clans within law enforcement vying for influence and power, Shoigu appears to be facing a moment of reckoning.
“Corruption accusations are an instrument for different political players in their battle for power,” said Shumanov.
In a March post-election speech to the Federal Security Service, Putin told the successors to the KGB to pay “special attention” to corruption in the defense sector.
The security services have never liked Shoigu, wrote Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter. “For one, the security services are always wary of the military and are always looking for conspiracies in their circles.”
For now the case is focused only on the bribery charge and state media has given the story relatively little airtime, suggesting the Kremlin is not looking to make an even bigger splash out of Ivanov’s arrest. He is charged with taking bribes of more than 1 million rubles (€10,000) — a “laughable” accusation in light of the gigantic amounts passing through his hands and those of other high-ranking officials every month, said Shumanov.
“Give any of the deputy ministers a good shake and you’ll find much larger sums, Rolls Royces, expensive real estate and much more,” he said.
Peskov also has played down rumors that Ivanov could be charged with treason, calling them “nothing more than speculations.”
In a sign of how quickly the fortunes of Putin’s elite can change, Ivanov will spend the next two months in pretrial detention in Moscow’s high-security Lefortovo prison.
And Shoigu, long seen as one of Putin’s most loyal henchmen who has even been his travel buddy on trips to the taiga, will be on the edge of his seat, pending the appointment of Ivanov’s replacement and the results of the cabinet reshuffle — which is presumably exactly where Putin wants him.
