KYIV — Ukrainian troops defending captured territory in Russia’s Kursk region are under fierce attack from a Russian counteroffensive that’s building up steam, and commanders will soon have to make a tough choice whether to continue the struggle or withdraw.
If they get the timing wrong, Ukrainian forces risk being be cut off, warn military analysts.
“The Ukrainian command must make a choice. Leave the Kursk region, completing the operation and preserving forces, or hold on, risking losing everything,” according to military analyst Yan Matveyev.
Writing on his Telegram channel, he said the battle has shifted radically in recent days.
“The only real reason to hold onto the Kursk foothold is to use it as a bargaining chip in future negotiations. However, losing a substantial number of experienced troops and advanced equipment in a drawn-out defense could severely weaken Ukraine’s military capacity in other regions,” he noted.
Russian pro-war Telegram channel Two Majors is claiming that Russian troops penetrated around four kilometers into Ukrainian-held territory in recent days and are attempting an encirclement.
Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, admitted “difficult battles” are underway. He said Russian assault units are attempting to break through and seize control of an important highway running from Yunakivka in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast to Ukrainian-held Sudzha.
Ukraine’s surprise cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk region last August caught Russian President Vladimir Putin and his generals unprepared. It also changed the narrative for Ukraine, which until then had been steadily losing territory to the Russians.
The raid demonstrated that Ukraine maintained some waspish offensive capabilities.
But the incursion wasn’t designed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his generals with the idea of shifting the tide of the conflict: It was meant to serve both as a morale-booster for war-weary Ukrainians — in large part it did lift spirits — and as a bargaining chip in any subsequent peace talks.
Within days of the incursion, Ukrainian units drawn from four brigades quickly broadened a bridgehead in what amounted to the first invasion of Russia since World War II. And after a week, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed Ukraine had seized almost 1,000 square kilometers of territory inside Russia.
Since then elite Ukrainian units, including the 95th Air Assault Brigade, the 115th Mechanized Brigade and the 8th Separate Special Purpose Regiment, have been battling to hold their ground in the face of an escalating counteroffensive. And now they’re under considerable pressure from intense drone strikes and are struggling to ensure a smooth flow of resupplies.
In a Facebook post Artem Karyakin, a Ukrainian soldier, reported that Russia has transferred some of its best drone crews to the battle in Kursk. They are managing to hamper severely Ukraine’s logistics and room for maneuver.
“Since late 2024, Russia has dramatically escalated its use of FPV drones on various frequencies, fiber-optic connections, and fixed-wing types. Their primary aim is to disrupt our logistics,” he said.
“Our forces are struggling to deliver ammunition and provisions. Evacuating the wounded has become a dangerous and prolonged process. Some soldiers have had to rotate out on foot because transport cannot get through,” he added.
Meanwhile, Russian ground forces along with allied North Korean troops have been advancing on three fronts trying to squeeze the pocket and to seize control of a strategic road to the Ukrainian oblast of Sumy.
According to DeepStateMap, a reputable interactive online map of the hostilities, Ukrainian-controlled territory has been significantly reduced and risks being shrunk to less than 100 square kilometers and its narrowest point amounting to just a dozen kilometers wide.
Military analyst Mykola Bielieskov told POLITICO that a reduced salient may turn out to be easier to defend.
“Originally, it was quite a big bulge. Now we have more or less enough amount of troops to defend it,” he said. But he added: “If logistics become untenable, then we need to withdraw. Definitely.”
This article has been updated.